CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-21T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20932/-1
CME Note: A faint, full halo CME seen in SOHO running difference imagery that seems to be associated with a C5.6-class flare occurring around the Sun's center disk from AR3060 and possibly combines with CME 2022-07-21T01:36Z, a brighter CME seen to the NE in SOHO coronagraph imagery. A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-07-21T04:09Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 917
Longitude (deg): E02
Latitude (deg): N12
Half-angular width (deg): 44

Notes: Low confidence due to faint and diffuse full halo. No STEREO imagery available at the time of the CME.
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall

Lead Time: 31.62 hour(s)
Difference: -0.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-07-21T18:51Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy